CalculatedTakes Team

Democrats 2028: Opportunity

Democrats have an opportunity in 2028, but they have to show capability after midterm elections in 2026. The first step in accomplishing this is understanding the loss in 2024. Trump didn’t just win, he swept the swing states. There are a few clear lessons to be learned.

What Democrats need to do:

  1. Offer a long-term plan - Plan for the next 4-6 years, with clear short reasons why. Develop the plan as a dialog with the voters, and be agreeable to change if the situation or learning requires it. Democrats are not dogmatic, they are pragmatic. Neither Biden nor Harris could state what was next, which caused apathy.
  2. Language confusion: Don’t use words and phrases that create confusion. ‘Open Borders’ and ‘Defund the Police’ are examples. And stop using ‘abolish’, try ‘refocus’.
  3. Understand that most voters want a strong border. Voters were concerned about the influx at the Mexican border, and Trump addressed that concern. He may have gone too far but he recognized the concern and acted on it.
  4. Approach with strength: The United States has many ways to advance its interests around the world. Trump showed that the country could push back against China. He redefined the goal, created leverage, and demonstrated what an approach based on strength looks like. He took a similar approach with tariffs in 2025. Again, he went too far, but he made a point: The world needs the United States too.
  5. Stop taxing everything and alienating the rich. Rethink our tax policy, life taxes are worse than death taxes, lower the first and increase the latter.
  6. Expansive regulations are unhelpful: Define the broader wrong that is of concern, and make the consequences severe. Creating more bureaucracy is not the answer.
  7. Democratic candidates feels that to oppose Trump and Republicans they have to be against everything Republicans are for. But many times those candidates are too far left for the center, and the center is necessary to win.
  8. Get back to the basics:
    • Eucational / vocational opportunity for everyone: Not just the rich get an education / opportunity. But do not overindex on race and poverty - everyone has to work hard, the opportunity is not free from effort.
    • Healthcare: Opportunity is not just in education, it includes health care, for those who work when able bodied. There is a reason Republicans did not completely repeal the affordable care act. Healthcare provides a foundation that allows individuals to focus on work, invention, improvement. Doctors are expensive and limited, allow individuals to take more control of their healthcare, bring AI and other methods into the conversation. Self-care is a part of healthcare.
    • Universal basic income: Sounds like free money for no work, bad optics unless there is clear evidence and rules around it. Stay away.
    • Police these opportunities against those who take advantage, penalties should be steep and dependent on stolen value. Build tools into the program and process.
  9. Understand that most Americans believe abortion under certain situations, like rape, is acceptable. Make those the entry point, not abortion as a form of contraceptive.
  10. Democrats don’t have to initiate every fight, but they must be ready with a clear message and decisive action. Stop reacting. Start leading with a concise message. And don’t be afraid to show anger.
  11. Republicans have alternative facts, and no one expects them to apologize. Facts are good, but Democrats spend too much time apologizing. Stop being defensive.

The goal: show capability, win the center, and lead with a plan. Be pragmatic: don’t oppose an idea just because Republicans back it. And do not be defensive about playing offense.

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